Guide Thyroid · The immune layer behind the diagnosis

Understanding Hashimoto's thyroiditis: why the immune system attacks the thyroid

Hashimoto shows up in the thyroid. It begins somewhere else. If you only look at the TSH, you see the result and not the road that led there.

TPO and Tg antibodies Th17 and Treg Gut barrier Iodine, selenium, ferritin Evidence-based
My starting point

At its core, Hashimoto is not a thyroid disease. It is a dysregulation of the immune system that shows up in the thyroid. The organ is the site of events, not the cause. This distinction sounds academic. But it changes every question that comes after it.

Fifteen years of TSH, and nobody asked why

"But I'm well managed"

Imagine a woman in her early forties. Fifteen years ago she received the diagnosis of Hashimoto, and since then she has reliably taken her tablet. The TSH sits in the target range. Every six months a blood test, every six months the same sentence: your values are fine.

She sits in front of me and says she is not ill enough to complain and not well enough to be glad. In the morning she needs two hours before she is really there. In the afternoon she drops into a hole. Her skin is dry, her hair thinner, her mood swings in a rhythm she does not understand.

"In fifteen years nobody has asked me why my immune system is doing this. Everyone only asked how high my TSH is."

We then look at things nobody had looked at together before. How is the selenium and iodine supply. What does the ferritin look like, the iron store. What is the vitamin D level doing in February. Are there any signs of coeliac disease. How are sleep and recovery distributed across the week.

Not one of these points replaces her hormone tablet. Not one of them is a therapy against Hashimoto. They are adjustment screws on the system that keeps the inflammation going.

What came afterwards was no miracle and no rapid turnaround. It was a slow change over months. I cannot infer causality from this, I am only documenting the temporal association.

The lesson from this story is uncomfortable, and it is not aimed at any colleague.

It goes like this: a well managed laboratory value and feeling well are two different goals. Most of the time they coincide. Sometimes they do not.

Reframe

The first question is: how do I replace the missing hormone. The second question is: why is my immune system attacking. Both are legitimate, and the second one gets asked less often.

Hormone replacement replaces a production that is missing. That is sensible, well studied and often necessary. It does not, however, influence the immunological process that reduced the production in the first place. The two levels complement each other. Neither replaces the other.

What TPO and Tg antibodies actually indicate

Your laboratory report contains two abbreviations that cause a lot of fear and get very little explanation.

TPO antibodies are directed against thyroid peroxidase. This is the enzyme that attaches iodine to the carrier protein. Without this enzyme no thyroid hormone is produced. Tg antibodies are directed against thyroglobulin, the carrier protein itself.

Picture the thyroid as a small factory. Thyroglobulin is the conveyor belt, the peroxidase is the machine attached to it. In Hashimoto the immune system treats both as if they were foreign bodies.

11.3%of the US population had detectable TPO antibodies in NHANES III
10.4%had antibodies against thyroglobulin
7 to 10xmore often women are affected by Hashimoto than men
Antibodies are more common than the diseasePopulation survey, n=17,353

Hollowell and colleagues measured TSH, thyroxine and both thyroid antibodies in more than 17,000 people aged twelve and over as part of the large US health survey NHANES III. The sample was drawn so that it reflects the geographic and ethnic distribution of the US population.

TPO antibodies were found in 11.3 percent, Tg antibodies in 10.4 percent. Both were more common in women and increased with age. An important secondary finding: TPO antibodies were clearly linked with over- or underactive thyroid function, whereas isolated Tg antibodies were not.

For you this means two things. Antibodies alone are not yet a disease, they are widespread. And the TPO value is the more informative of the two.

Hollowell JG, Staehling NW, Flanders WD et al. Serum TSH, T4, and thyroid antibodies in the United States population (1988 to 1994): NHANES III. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2002. DOI: 10.1210/jcem.87.2.8182
Twenty years of follow-up, and what came of itCohort, n=2,779, 20 years

The Whickham cohort in northern England is one of the few studies that has followed an entire population sample over twenty years. Vanderpump and colleagues were able to reconstruct the course for over 97 percent of the original 2,779 participants.

Women with positive thyroid antibodies had roughly an eightfold higher risk of developing an underactive thyroid by the end of the observation period, with a confidence interval of 5 to 15. When elevated TSH values were added, the odds ratio rose to 38 in women and to 173 in men. The authors also showed that TSH values above 2 mU/l already raised the probability.

This is the reason antibodies are measured at all. They do not tell you how you are doing today. They say something about the direction of the coming years.

Vanderpump MP, Tunbridge WM, French JM et al. The incidence of thyroid disorders in the community: a twenty-year follow-up of the Whickham Survey. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf). 1995. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2265.1995.tb01894.x
Reframe

The antibody titre is a weather forecast, not a thermometer for how you feel.

I see people with four-digit titres who are doing well, and people with moderate values who suffer greatly. Anyone who makes the titre the yardstick for their own condition is measuring with the wrong instrument. It makes more sense to combine the course over time, the function, and what you notice in everyday life.

And now you know why a single number should never reassure you and never alarm you on its own.

The balance of T cells: a great deal is decided here

Your immune system has a task that is harder than it sounds. It has to distinguish between foreign and self, billions of times, every day.

For this there is a kind of brake. Regulatory T cells, Tregs for short, specialise in dampening excessive reactions against the body's own tissue. Facing them are Th17 cells, which drive inflammation. Both are needed. What matters is the ratio.

1

Tolerance is lost

The immune system no longer treats thyroid peroxidase, thyroglobulin and in part the TSH receptor as self, but as a target structure.

2

The brake works more weakly

Regulatory T cells are reduced in number or function. The corresponding transcription factor FOXP3 is detectable at lower levels in affected people.

3

The accelerator gets heavier

Th17 cells and their messenger interleukin-17 increase. The ratio of Th17 to Treg shifts in favour of inflammation.

4

Lymphocytes migrate into the tissue

Immune cells gather between the thyroid follicles. Over years cells are lost and hormone production decreases.

The shift is measurableCase-control, human

Liu and colleagues determined the proportions of Th17 and regulatory T cells in the blood of people with Hashimoto. The ratio of Th17 to Treg was increased and correlated positively with the level of thyroglobulin antibodies.

In addition they found an elevated level of the messenger GITRL, which in turn was linked to the proportion of Th17 cells. Their interpretation: GITRL may contribute to disturbing the balance between the two cell types.

An Iranian research group independently measured the corresponding transcription factors in 40 women with Hashimoto and 40 healthy controls. FOXP3, the marker of the brake, was significantly reduced, while the activators for Th1 and Th2 were increased.

Liu Y, Tang X, Tian J et al. Th17/Treg cells imbalance and GITRL profile in patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis. Int J Mol Sci. 2014. DOI: 10.3390/ijms151221674 · Safdari V, Alijani E, Nemati M, Jafarzadeh A. Sultan Qaboos Univ Med J. 2017. DOI: 10.18295/squmj.2016.17.02.007

It is not the thyroid that is making a mistake. The body's protective authority has lost its target recognition.

And now you know why it makes sense to look in this direction and not only at the hormone number.

Why you and not your sister: genes are predisposition

Almost everyone who receives this diagnosis asks this question at some point. Why me.

The answer begins with genetics, but it does not end there. There is a handful of well confirmed risk genes in autoimmune thyroid disease. They do not lower the threshold specifically for Hashimoto, but the threshold for autoimmunity in general.

HLA-DR

Determines which protein fragments are presented to the immune system at all. One research group showed that an arginine at position 74 in the binding pocket is a critical factor.

Presentation of antigens

CTLA-4

A braking molecule on T cells. Variants with a weaker braking effect are linked with several autoimmune diseases, not only with the thyroid.

Downregulation of T cell activation

PTPN22

Regulates the signal strength inside the T cell. One known variant is also found in type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis.

Signal threshold of the T cell

Tg and TSH receptor

These thyroid-specific genes help decide whether the general tendency towards autoimmunity shows up in this particular organ.

Organ specificity
Many genes, an individual combinationMechanism review

Weetman summarises the state of knowledge like this: HLA-DR alleles as well as the genes for CTLA-4, PTPN22, FCRL3 and probably the interleukin-2 receptor jointly lower the baseline threshold for autoimmunity. Whether a thyroid disease develops from this is co-determined by other factors, among them the genes for thyroglobulin and the TSH receptor.

His decisive sentence for practice: every affected person brings their own bundle of genetic and environmental factors, which only partly overlaps with that of other patients carrying the same diagnosis.

Hasham and Tomer add the epigenetic level. Their thesis is that risk genes only become effective in interplay with environmental stimuli via epigenetic changes. This is mechanistically plausible and in part supported, but not yet clarified in a way that would allow a prediction for individual people.

Weetman AP. The genetics of autoimmune thyroid disease. Horm Metab Res. 2009. DOI: 10.1055/s-0029-1214415 · Hasham A, Tomer Y. Immunol Res. 2012. DOI: 10.1007/s12026-012-8302-x
Reframe

Your genes load the gun. What pulls the trigger is a different question, and that is where the part you can influence lies.

This phrasing is not mine, it is common in autoimmune research. It has one advantage and one danger. The advantage: it takes the fatalism out. The danger: it can tip over into self-reproach. Neither of those is intended. Nobody chose to have an autoimmune disease.

The gut barrier: much discussed, honestly framed

About seventy percent of your immune tissue lies along the gut. That is not a coincidence, it is geography. That is where your interior meets the largest quantity of foreign material, every day, several times a day.

So the question is an obvious one: if immune tolerance is trained anywhere, it is there. And if it gets out of step anywhere, then perhaps there too.

What was found in the gut in HashimotoCase-control, n=93

Cayres and colleagues in Brazil examined stool samples from 40 people with Hashimoto and 53 control subjects, along with cytokines and zonulin in the blood and dietary habits.

They found shifts in bacterial composition, as well as differences in the consumption of vegetables, fruit, animal protein, dairy products and carbohydrates. Systemic cytokines did not differ, while zonulin concentrations in the blood were increased in those affected. From this they concluded a more permeable gut barrier.

What this study shows: an association. What it does not show: a direction. Whether the altered flora helps set off autoimmunity, or whether the disease and its accompanying circumstances change the flora, cannot be answered from a cross-sectional design.

Cayres LCF, de Salis LVV, Rodrigues GSP et al. Detection of Alterations in the Gut Microbiota and Intestinal Permeability in Patients With Hashimoto Thyroiditis. Front Immunol. 2021. DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.579140

And now comes the part you rarely read in the leaky gut discussion.

The zonulin debate, factually

Zonulin is regarded as a marker for the permeability of the gut barrier. The idea behind it is well supported: zonulin, identical with the precursor of haptoglobin 2, can briefly open the connections between gut cells.

The problem lies in the measurement. A Leipzig research group around Scheffler examined the widely used commercial zonulin test closely in 2018 across 376 samples. The result: the test does not detect the precursor of haptoglobin 2 at all. Using mass spectrometry and Western blot they instead found other proteins, among them properdin.

What is remarkable is that Alessio Fasano, who originally described zonulin, is a co-author of this work. That is good science: a group critically checks its own idea.

How I handle this in practice: I consider the gut barrier a serious part of the picture, because the immunological logic holds and because coeliac disease is well documented as an accompanying condition. But I do not treat a single zonulin value like a hard number. It is one clue among others, not a diagnosis.

What is established in the area of gut and thyroid and what is not

  • Well established: coeliac disease occurs more frequently in autoimmune thyroid disease. Investigating it makes sense when corresponding complaints are present.
  • Well established: the composition of the gut flora influences the availability of iodine, iron, selenium and zinc, precisely the building blocks the thyroid needs.
  • Observed, direction open: people with Hashimoto show a different bacterial composition from controls in several studies.
  • Mechanistically plausible, not proven in humans: that a more permeable gut barrier sets off autoimmunity against the thyroid.
  • Methodologically contested: the commercial zonulin test as a quantitative measure of barrier function.

Molecular mimicry: when similarity becomes a problem

Your immune system recognises shapes. It reads the surface of proteins like a silhouette.

Molecular mimicry describes an unpleasant possibility: a pathogen carries a structure that resembles one of the body's own proteins. The immune system learns to attack the pathogen, and afterwards hits its own tissue too. Like a doorman who has memorised a face and then refuses entry to the twin brother.

Yersinia and the TSH receptorIn vitro, human sera

Wang and colleagues investigated which proteins of the gut bacterium Yersinia enterocolitica are recognised by antibodies against the TSH receptor. Using mass spectrometry and structural modelling they identified the outer membrane protein ompF.

This bacterial protein shares cross-immunogenicity with a particular region of the human TSH receptor. The recognised section lies between amino acids 190 and 197.

Important for the framing: this work was carried out in Graves' disease, not in Hashimoto, and it is mechanistic, not clinical. An independent Italian group had already found matches between the TSH receptor and proteins of Yersinia as well as Borrelia burgdorferi by sequence comparison in 2004, with identities between 23 and 50 percent.

Wang Z, Zhang Q, Lu J et al. Identification of outer membrane porin F protein of Yersinia enterocolitica recognized by antithyrotropin receptor antibodies in Graves' disease. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2010. DOI: 10.1210/jc.2009-2184 · Benvenga S, Guarneri F, Vaccaro M et al. Thyroid. 2004. DOI: 10.1089/thy.2004.14.964
Viruses in thyroid tissue, and an honest resultTissue analysis, n=53

A Norwegian-Italian group around Weider examined thyroid tissue from 35 people with autoimmune thyroid disease and 18 control subjects for ten different viruses, using cell culture plus gene search plus protein detection.

In 40 of 53 samples, that is 75 percent, a replication-competent virus was found. The most common were enteroviruses at 51 percent, human herpesvirus 6 at 30 percent and parvovirus B19 at 22 percent. Epstein-Barr virus and cytomegalovirus were found in only a few cases.

And now the decisive sentence: the distribution of viruses did not differ statistically between those affected and the controls. The authors themselves write that it remains open whether these are triggers, cofactors or mere co-inhabitants.

Weider T, Genoni A, Broccolo F et al. High Prevalence of Common Human Viruses in Thyroid Tissue. Front Endocrinol. 2022. DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.938633
Reframe

Molecular mimicry is a good hypothesis and not a proven trigger. Tolerating that difference is part of being honest.

On the internet you often read that Yersinia or Epstein-Barr are the cause of Hashimoto. The evidence does not support that. What it does support: there are structural similarities, there are viruses in the tissue, and there is so far no clean proof that the disease arises from them. Anyone selling you certainty here is selling you more than exists.

Stress and the HPA axis: what the data show

I am writing this section with mixed feelings, because the result contradicts my own intuition.

The idea is mechanistically coherent. The HPA axis, that is hypothalamus, pituitary and adrenal gland, helps steer the balance of immune cell types via cortisol. Chronic strain can change this steering. In Graves' disease an association with stress has been described in several papers.

Two studies that checked this specificallyProspective cohort, n=790, 5 years

An Amsterdam group followed 790 women with healthy thyroids, all of them with first- or second-degree relatives with autoimmune thyroid disease. Over five years, life events, daily hassles and mood were recorded annually.

In the women who newly developed TPO antibodies over the course, stress levels were no higher than in the women who did not develop any. Nor were differences found in those who developed manifest over- or underactive thyroid function.

The same group had previously looked at 759 women with healthy thyroids in a cross-sectional design. 24 percent had TPO antibodies. The number of daily hassles, the number of life events and mood scores were practically identical between antibody-positive and antibody-negative women.

Effraimidis G, Tijssen JGP, Brosschot JF, Wiersinga WM. Involvement of stress in the pathogenesis of autoimmune thyroid disease: a prospective study. Psychoneuroendocrinology. 2012. DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2011.12.009 · Strieder TGA, Prummel MF, Tijssen JGP et al. Brain Behav Immun. 2005. DOI: 10.1016/j.bbi.2004.07.003
How I deal with this

I could leave these studies out because they do not fit the widespread narrative. That would be dishonest. On the question of whether stress sets off antibody formation, the best prospective data argue against it.

What this does not mean: that stress is irrelevant in Hashimoto. It shapes sleep, recovery, pain perception, energy and the capacity to change anything at all. It helps determine how an illness feels, even if it does not set it off.

There is a difference between something being a trigger and being an amplifier of experience. Both matter. They are simply not the same thing.

Iodine: a double-edged sword

Hardly any topic creates as much uncertainty in Hashimoto as iodine. And rarely is the answer so far from clear-cut.

The thyroid needs iodine, no argument there. Without iodine no hormone is produced. At the same time there is a very well documented observation: after the introduction of iodised salt programmes, the frequency of thyroid autoimmunity and underactive thyroid function rose in several countries.

What iodisation programmes changedReview article

Fiore, Tonacchera and Vitti summarised the evidence on iodine prophylaxis and thyroid diseases. After the programmes were introduced, an increased frequency of thyroid autoimmunity and hypothyroidism was observed.

The probable mechanism: heavily iodinated thyroglobulin is more visible to the immune system than weakly iodinated thyroglobulin. The Rayman review puts it as highly iodinated thyroglobulin being more immunogenic.

And now the sentence that is often missing in guidebooks: the same authors emphasise explicitly that the benefit of a balanced iodine status clearly outweighs the risks. This is not about avoiding iodine, it is about dose and pace.

Fiore E, Tonacchera M, Vitti P. Influence of iodization programmes on the epidemiology of nodular goitre. Best Pract Res Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2014. DOI: 10.1016/j.beem.2014.04.002 · Rayman MP. Proc Nutr Soc. 2019. DOI: 10.1017/S0029665118001192
Too little iodine is a risk as wellCross-sectional, n=4,635

Chen and colleagues measured urinary iodine excretion and thyroid antibodies in 4,635 pregnant women in Shanghai. The median iodine value was 138 micrograms per litre, and a good half of the women were undersupplied.

Women with an iodine excretion below 100 micrograms per litre had an increased risk of positive thyroid antibodies, with an odds ratio of 1.32. The analysis using flexible splines showed a non-linear relationship between iodine intake and autoimmunity.

So the picture is not "the less iodine the better", but rather a curve with a favourable middle range. In everyday language that means: iodised table salt and sea fish are not the enemy. High-dose iodine supplements and seaweed products in large quantities belong in medical hands in Hashimoto.

Chen X, Wu C, Wang Z et al. Iodine nutrition status and thyroid autoimmunity during pregnancy: a cross-sectional study of 4635 pregnant women. Nutr J. 2022. DOI: 10.1186/s12937-022-00760-6
Reframe

The question is not iodine yes or no. It is: how much, how fast, and in what state is the gland.

A sudden burst of iodine on an already inflamed thyroid is something different from a normal supply through food. It is the same logic as in training: a load that strengthens a healthy muscle can overwhelm an injured one.

Selenium, vitamin D and ferritin: the immune system's cofactors

When the thyroid produces hormone, hydrogen peroxide inevitably arises in the process. That is not a fault, that is part of the procedure. But it is aggressive, and it has to be cleared away.

This clearing work is done by selenium-dependent enzymes, above all the glutathione peroxidases. Without enough selenium, production continues while the waste disposal runs more slowly. In a tissue where inflammation is already running, that is not a good combination.

Selenium: the best available summaryMeta-analysis, k=35 studies

A Swiss group around Huwiler systematically evaluated all randomised studies on selenium in Hashimoto in the journal Thyroid in 2024. Out of 687 screened datasets, 35 studies remained.

In people without hormone replacement the TSH value fell slightly, with a standardised mean difference of minus 0.21. TPO antibodies fell more clearly, with minus 0.96 across 29 cohorts and 2,358 participants. Side effects did not occur more often than under placebo. The authors rate the overall certainty of the evidence as moderate.

Heterogeneity between the studies was very high, however. And the Cochrane review by van Zuuren, which applied stricter inclusion criteria, concluded on the basis of four studies that the evidence is not yet sufficient for a clear recommendation. Both belong in the same account.

Huwiler VV, Maissen-Abgottspon S, Stanga Z et al. Selenium Supplementation in Patients with Hashimoto Thyroiditis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials. Thyroid. 2024. DOI: 10.1089/thy.2023.0556 · van Zuuren EJ, Albusta AY, Fedorowicz Z et al. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD010223.pub2

Vitamin D

Two independent meta-analyses found lower vitamin D levels in Hashimoto than in healthy people. Both are based on observational studies. Whether the low level is cause, consequence or accompanying phenomenon cannot be derived from this.

Iron and ferritin

Thyroid peroxidase is a haem enzyme. It only becomes active after it has bound haem, and for that it needs iron. A low iron store therefore hits hormone production at a very concrete point.

Vitamin D in autoimmune thyroid diseaseMeta-analysis, k=42 and k=20

Taheriniya and colleagues evaluated 42 observational studies. In Hashimoto the vitamin D level was on average 6.05 nanograms per decilitre lower than in controls, with a confidence interval from minus 8.35 to minus 3.75.

An earlier meta-analysis by Wang and colleagues across 20 case-control studies arrived at a similar picture. People with autoimmune thyroid disease more often had a vitamin D deficiency, with an odds ratio of 2.99.

What follows from this and what does not: a good vitamin D supply makes sense for many reasons and is easy to check. That raising the level influences the course of Hashimoto is not shown by this. Observational data fundamentally cannot deliver that.

Taheriniya S, Arab A, Hadi A et al. Vitamin D and thyroid disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. BMC Endocr Disord. 2021. DOI: 10.1186/s12902-021-00831-5 · Wang J, Lv S, Chen G et al. Nutrients. 2015. DOI: 10.3390/nu7042485
Why I look more closely at ferritinReview article

Margaret Rayman of the University of Surrey summarised the evidence on iodine, iron and selenium in thyroid diseases. Her point about iron is biochemically precise: thyroid peroxidase is a haem enzyme and only becomes active after binding haem.

She also describes that people with autoimmune thyroid disease have an above-average frequency of iron deficiency, because autoimmune gastritis and coeliac disease as accompanying conditions reduce absorption or cause losses.

The finding I find most interesting: in about two thirds of women with persistent hypothyroid complaints despite an appropriately adjusted hormone dose, symptoms improved after ferritin was raised above 100 micrograms per litre. That is an observation from a review article, not a proof. I find it important enough to know the ferritin, and not only the haemoglobin, when exhaustion persists.

Rayman MP. Multiple nutritional factors and thyroid disease, with particular reference to autoimmune thyroid disease. Proc Nutr Soc. 2019. DOI: 10.1017/S0029665118001192 · Gierach M, Rudewicz M, Junik R. Endokrynol Pol. 2024. DOI: 10.5603/ep.97860

A normal haemoglobin value does not rule out an empty iron store. The store empties first, the blood count last.

Oestrogen, pregnancy and the time afterwards

Hashimoto affects women seven to ten times more often than men. That figure is so large that it calls for an explanation.

There are several explanatory approaches side by side. Sex hormones influence the activity of immune cells. Numerous immune genes lie on the X chromosome, and the patterns of X inactivation differ between women. Added to this is pregnancy as an immunological exceptional state.

The time after birth is a window of its ownReview article

Lee and Pearce summarised the state of knowledge on thyroid disorders in pregnancy and the puerperium for Nature Reviews Endocrinology. Postpartum thyroiditis can occur up to a year after delivery and has to be distinguished from other forms of thyroid dysfunction, because the treatment looks different.

The immunological background is easy to follow. In pregnancy the mother's immune system is dampened so that the child is not rejected. After birth it ramps up again. In some women it overshoots the previous level.

Caturegli and colleagues explicitly classify silent thyroiditis, both sporadic and postpartum, as a variant within the Hashimoto spectrum.

Lee SY, Pearce EN. Assessment and treatment of thyroid disorders in pregnancy and the postpartum period. Nat Rev Endocrinol. 2022. DOI: 10.1038/s41574-021-00604-z · Caturegli P, De Remigis A, Rose NR. Autoimmun Rev. 2014. DOI: 10.1016/j.autrev.2014.01.007
An example of why statistics teach humility

The obvious assumption would be that every further pregnancy increases the autoimmune risk. Yehuda and colleagues tested this in 4,864 women from several NHANES surveys.

At first it looked exactly like that. Women who had been pregnant had an odds ratio of 1.55 for thyroid autoimmunity, and with a rising number of pregnancies it climbed further, up to 1.73 at four and more.

Then the authors adjusted out age, ethnic background, smoking status, thyroid history and iodine status. After statistical adjustment nothing of the association remained. An additional age-matched analysis confirmed this.

The lesson goes far beyond this example. A strong crude association can dissolve into thin air as soon as age is taken into account. Anyone reading numbers on health topics should always ask whether and for what adjustment was made.

Smoking: not protection, but a shift

Now comes a finding that sounds wrong at first, and which I am nevertheless not leaving out.

What NHANES III showed on smokingCross-sectional, n=15,592

Belin and colleagues determined smoking status objectively in NHANES III via the breakdown product cotinine in the blood, not via self-report. 15,592 people were evaluated.

Smokers had thyroid antibodies less often than non-smokers, 11 percent versus 18 percent, and 13 percent after adjustment for age, sex, ethnic background and iodine status. Elevated TSH values were also found less often, 2.6 versus 5.5 percent.

The decisive second half of the finding: smoke exposure went along with a threefold probability of a low-normal TSH, that is a shift towards overactive thyroid function. In review articles on Graves' disease, smoking counts among the established environmental factors.

Taken together this means: smoking is not protection against autoimmunity. It shifts the risk within the spectrum, away from the Hashimoto side and towards the Graves' side. For the eye involvement in Graves' disease, smoking is a particularly well known risk factor.

Belin RM, Astor BC, Powe NR, Ladenson PW. Smoke exposure is associated with a lower prevalence of serum thyroid autoantibodies and thyrotropin concentration elevation. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2004. DOI: 10.1210/jc.2004-0431 · Leporati P, Groppelli G, Zerbini F et al. Nuklearmedizin. 2015. DOI: 10.3413/Nukmed-0739-15-04
Reframe

A finding that looks good in one direction is not yet a recommendation. You have to read the whole balance sheet.

This is exactly where sound interpretation parts ways with unsound interpretation. It would be technically correct and still grossly misleading to conclude from this study that smoking is favourable in Hashimoto. The overall balance for heart, vessels, lungs and eyes is unambiguous, and in this case the autoimmune risk only shifts, it does not disappear.

The four KPNI lenses on one picture

I work with four perspectives that I lay side by side. None of them explains Hashimoto on its own. Together they produce a picture that offers more points of leverage than a single number.

Immune system

Shifted ratio of Th17 to regulatory T cells, reduced FOXP3 marker, lymphocyte infiltration into thyroid tissue. This is where the core events lie.

Metabolism

Selenium for the disposal of hydrogen peroxide, iron for the haem binding of the peroxidase, iodine as a building block and at the same time as an immune stimulus. Oxidative stress as an amplifier.

Hormonal system

A clear clustering in women, immunological readjustment in pregnancy and the puerperium, interaction between sex hormones and immune cells.

Nervous system

For the emergence of the antibodies, the prospective data argue against a strong stress effect. For sleep, energy, pain perception and coping with everyday life, this lens remains central.

Three levers you hold yourself

I deliberately give no protocols and no dosages here. That belongs in a conversation with findings and a history. What I can give are directions.

Three concrete next steps

  • Know your cofactors, not just your TSH. Ferritin, vitamin D and selenium status are easy to measure. If for years you have only received TSH and perhaps fT4, that is a legitimate thing to raise at your next appointment.
  • Have coeliac disease investigated if digestive complaints, iron deficiency or unexplained exhaustion are part of the picture. The clustering is well established, the test is established, and the consequence would be considerable. Important: the investigation has to happen before a gluten-free diet, otherwise the result is not usable.
  • Do not take high-dose iodine supplements and large amounts of seaweed on your own initiative. Iodised table salt and sea fish are a different order of magnitude from a supplement with many thousands of micrograms. With an inflamed thyroid, this decision belongs in medical care.

This is not about getting rid of your tablet. It is about nobody reducing you to a number when you are a story.

What is established and what remains open

On a solid evidence base

  • Hashimoto rests on a loss of immune tolerance towards thyroid antigens, with lymphocyte infiltration and autoantibodies.
  • TPO antibodies are a risk marker for the development of an underactive thyroid, documented over twenty years of follow-up.
  • Genetic variants in HLA-DR, CTLA-4, PTPN22, CD40 and further genes lower the threshold for autoimmunity.
  • After iodisation programmes the frequency of thyroid autoimmunity rises, without this speaking against iodine supply overall.
  • Levothyroxine can reliably replace the missing hormone in an underactive thyroid and is the established treatment.

Plausible, but not yet conclusively clarified

  • Whether a more permeable gut barrier helps set off autoimmunity against the thyroid or is a consequence of it.
  • Whether molecular mimicry through Yersinia, Borrelia or viruses actually sets off Hashimoto in humans.
  • Whether a reduction of TPO antibodies through selenium goes together with feeling better or with a slower course.
  • Whether raising the vitamin D level influences the course, or whether the low level is rather an accompanying phenomenon.
  • How large the contribution of X-chromosomal mechanisms to the strong clustering in women actually is.
Where I stand on conventional treatment

Specialist thyroid care with regular monitoring, ultrasound and a carefully managed hormone dose is important and not up for negotiation. Over decades it has shown that it can reliably compensate for an underactive thyroid.

What an integrative view can add is the question about the layer underneath: about cofactors, accompanying conditions, the gut, nutrient status and life rhythm. That is not a counter-proposal, it is a second perspective on the same person.

In practice I see people who feel better after working on these levels. I also see people in whom little changes. I am describing observations here, not a rule.

Frequently asked questions about Hashimoto and the immune system

What exactly is Hashimoto's thyroiditis?

Hashimoto is a chronic inflammation of the thyroid in which your own immune system loses tolerance towards thyroid proteins. Lymphocytes migrate into the tissue, and antibodies against thyroid peroxidase and against thyroglobulin can be detected in the blood. Over years this can lead to an underactive thyroid, because functioning tissue is lost. The condition was first described in 1912 and is today considered the most common autoimmune disease of all. Important for the framing: Hashimoto shows up in the thyroid, but it starts in the immune system. That is not splitting hairs, it changes the questions you ask.

Why does the immune system attack the thyroid?

There is no single answer to this, only an interplay. On one side there is a genetic predisposition through genes such as HLA-DR, CTLA-4, PTPN22, CD40 and FOXP3, all of which lower the threshold for autoimmunity. On the other side there are environmental factors. In between lies a shift in immune regulation: regulatory T cells, which are supposed to slow down self-directed attacks, work less reliably, while inflammation-promoting Th17 cells increase. In studies of people with Hashimoto, the ratio of Th17 to regulatory cells was clearly shifted and the transcription factor FOXP3 was reduced. You can picture it like a fire brigade that has become too small while at the same time more fires are being lit.

What do TPO and Tg antibodies say about my course of illness?

They are above all a risk marker, not a severity gauge. In the twenty-year follow-up of the British Whickham cohort, women with positive thyroid antibodies had roughly an eightfold higher risk of developing an underactive thyroid. When elevated TSH values were added, the odds ratio rose to 38 in women and to 173 in men. Conversely, a high antibody titre does not automatically mean you are doing worse. Some people with very high values feel well, others with moderate values feel very unwell. That is why the titre alone is a poor basis for treatment decisions, but a very good reason to look more closely.

Do the antibodies come down again if I change something?

In some people yes, in others not, and the link with how you feel is not established. The best studied option is selenium. A systematic review with meta-analysis from 2024 evaluated 35 studies and found a decrease in TPO antibodies with a standardised mean difference of minus 0.96. Heterogeneity between the studies was very high, however, and the 2013 Cochrane review concluded that the evidence is not yet sufficient for a clear recommendation. My conclusion from this: a falling titre is a welcome signal, but not an end in itself. What matters is how you are doing and how thyroid function develops.

Is Hashimoto hereditary?

What is inherited is a predisposition, not a diagnosis. Confirmed risk genes include HLA-DR, CTLA-4, PTPN22, CD40, CD25, FOXP3 as well as the genes for thyroglobulin and the TSH receptor. For HLA-DR, one research group was able to show that an arginine at position 74 in the binding pocket of the molecule is a critical factor. These variants lower the threshold for autoimmunity in general, but they do not determine whether and when someone falls ill. Review articles state explicitly that every affected person brings their own bundle of genetic and environmental factors, which only partly overlaps with that of others. A family cluster is therefore a reason for attention, not for fatalism.

What does the gut have to do with Hashimoto?

About 70 percent of immune tissue lies along the gut, which makes the question an obvious one. In a Brazilian case-control study of 40 people with Hashimoto and 53 control subjects, shifts in bacterial composition and increased zonulin concentrations in the blood were found, which the authors read as a sign of a more permeable gut barrier. At the same time, coeliac disease is a well documented accompanying condition. Two points call for honesty: these studies show associations, not causes, and the zonulin test itself has been criticised on methodological grounds. The gut belongs in the picture, but it is not the sole explanation.

Is iodine dangerous in Hashimoto?

Iodine is a double-edged sword, and both edges are documented. After iodised salt programmes were introduced, an increase in thyroid autoimmunity and underactive thyroid function was observed in several countries, because heavily iodinated thyroglobulin is more visible to the immune system. The same reviews emphasise, however, that the benefit of adequate iodine supply clearly outweighs the risks. A cross-sectional study of 4,635 pregnant women in Shanghai additionally found that iodine deficiency also went along with an increased risk of positive thyroid antibodies, with an odds ratio of 1.32. The association was not linear but U-shaped. Too little is a problem, and a great deal all at once is a problem too. High-dose iodine supplements therefore belong in medical hands in Hashimoto.

Can selenium do anything in Hashimoto?

Selenium is the best studied micronutrient in Hashimoto, and the picture is positive but not clear-cut. Selenium-dependent enzymes, above all the glutathione peroxidases, clear away the surplus hydrogen peroxide in the thyroid that inevitably arises during hormone production. In the 2024 meta-analysis, TPO antibodies fell, and in people without hormone replacement the TSH value fell as well, while the rate of side effects did not differ from placebo. The Cochrane review remains more reserved and points to methodological weaknesses in the individual studies. What has not been shown so far: that falling antibodies reliably go together with feeling better or with a slower course. Selenium is therefore a reasoned option, not an automatic step, and your supply status should be known beforehand.

Can stress trigger Hashimoto?

Here the data diverge from the widespread narrative, and that needs saying. Mechanistically the idea is plausible, because cortisol and the HPA axis help determine the balance between immune cell types. Two Dutch studies looked at this specifically. In a cross-sectional study of 759 euthyroid women, life events, daily hassles and mood did not differ between women with and without TPO antibodies. In a prospective cohort of 790 women over five years, stress levels in those who newly developed antibodies were no higher than in the others. For the emergence of the antibodies, this argues against a strong stress effect. For living with the condition, stress nevertheless remains highly relevant, because it shapes sleep, energy and pain perception.

Do I still need levothyroxine if I work on the causes?

To be entirely clear: working on the immune level does not replace hormone replacement, it complements it. If the thyroid produces too little hormone, the body needs that hormone. Levothyroxine is well studied, easy to adjust, and in this situation sensible and often necessary. There is so far no evidence that any dietary or nutrient concept could replace an existing underactive thyroid. What the additional perspective can contribute is a different question: why the immune system has moved into this mode and which other levers exist alongside. Both levels belong together, and dose management belongs in medical care.

If you want to go deeper

This article belongs to the Thyroid guide. The following texts pick out individual building blocks and go further into depth there.

SJ
About the author

Shukri Jarmoukli

Physician, Integrative Medicine · ViveCura Berlin

I work at the interface of conventional medicine and clinical psychoneuroimmunology. With a topic like Hashimoto I am less interested in the question of which value currently sits where, and more in the question of why the immune system has moved into this mode and which other levers exist alongside.

This text does not replace medical advice or specialist thyroid care. It is meant to give you a language for what you observe in yourself, and for the questions you would like to ask at your next appointment.

ViveCura · Skalitzer Straße 137, Berlin

Sources

All statements were checked via PubMed. The central claims on antibody risk, on the Th17-Treg shift, on genetics, on the role of iodine and selenium as well as on the stress association are each backed by at least two independent papers. Where points are contested, the contradicting paper is explicitly carried along.

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Transparency note on the evidence The immunological basic structure of Hashimoto, the predictive value of TPO antibodies and the role of the confirmed risk genes rest on a broad evidence base replicated over decades. The situation is considerably thinner on several points that are frequently presented as settled in guidebooks. The connection between the gut barrier and thyroid autoimmunity rests so far on cross-sectional data, from which no direction can be derived, and the common zonulin test has been criticised on methodological grounds. Molecular mimicry through Yersinia, Borrelia or viruses is structurally well shown, but a clean demonstration of causality in humans is lacking. For a causal contribution of psychological stress to the emergence of the antibodies, the best prospective data explicitly do not speak in favour. For selenium, meta-analyses show a reduction in antibodies with high heterogeneity, while the Cochrane review remains reserved, and for vitamin D only observational data are available so far. The associations described here are biologically plausible, but on these points they are not documented with the same certainty as through large randomised trials. They replace neither specialist thyroid care nor individual medical advice, and they are explicitly not a basis for changing an existing hormone replacement on your own.

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